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Moore Optimistic on Moore's Law

"Another decade is probably straightforward...There is certainly no end to creativity"
— Gordon Moore, Intel Chairman Emeritus of the Board Speaking of extending Moore's Law at the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), February 2003.

Intel's Gordon Moore made a prediction about the semiconductor industry in the 1960s that has become the stuff of legend. Now known as Moore's Law, that prediction has today become shorthand for rapid technological change.

Moore predicted the exponential growth that has driven the semiconductor industry from startup some 50 years ago to more than $200 billion in annual revenue today. Circuits have also become the foundation of the trillion-dollar electronics industry. As integrated circuit costs have decreased, they have made their way into modern products ranging from automobiles to greeting cards.

Moore, in addressing the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC*), discussed some of the coming trends in the semiconductor industry, as well as some of the challenges going forward. For the computer industry, many of the exponential trends are approaching limits that require new solutions if the historic rate of progress is to continue.

Intel innovation makes Moore’s Law a reality

For nearly four decades, Intel innovation has made Moore’s Law a reality, touching billions of lives and changing the way the world lives, works and plays.

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New technologies address challenges

Several times in the past, it appeared that technological barriers such as power consumption would slow or even halt the growth trends, but companies found ways around the barriers. Intel's newest silicon technologies address many of these issues. But Moore says a new, more fundamental barrier is emerging — that the technology is approaching atomic dimensions, raising all sorts of new challenges.

The key to ensuring that Moore's Law continues is that the transistor itself must evolve from the planar (flat) structure generally used today. Many new ideas have been proposed to solve the evolving issues. One radical proposal currently being studied involves a three-dimensional, tri-gate transistor. These new transistors achieve higher performance with greater power efficiency than traditional planar transistors, and are designed such that they can continue to be scaled down while being reasonably simple to manufacture.

There are many ways to solve the issues that the industry now faces. The resourceful engineers and scientists in the semiconductor industry have faced previous challenges and risen to the occasion, and they will do so again.

For at least several more generations, new approaches should propel progress at roughly the same rate at which it has moved historically. But Moore says that even if doubling times stretch in the future, the rate of progress in the semiconductor industry will far surpass that of nearly all other industries.

All information provided related to future Intel® products and plans is preliminary and subject to change at any time, without notice.