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Since 1968, Intel has advanced semiconductor technology using Moore's Law as a roadmap. This has
resulted in computing-related products with ever increasing capability and performance, fabrication
processes with ever smaller feature sizes, and ever more efficient high-volume manufacturing (HVM)
facilities. Many of the successes in these and related areas have been reported in the pages of
this Journal over the years. However, to evolve to realize over $35B in revenue in 2006 requires a
wide variety of support capabilities as well. While it is necessary for Intel to continue to lead
in the semiconductor technology race, it is arguably not sufficient. For example, a previous issue
of this Journal entitled "Managing International Supply and Demand at Intel" (Volume 9, Issue 3,
August 2005) described such support capabilities as supply chain planning and inventory modeling.
This Intel Technology Journal (Vol. 11, Issue 2) on "The Spectrum of Risk Management in a Technology
Company," explains Intel's approach to risk as a support capability that includes technical,
marketing, and commercial areas.
Risk comes in many guises for Intel. On the one hand, the high technology component of Intel's
business faces a number of sequential issues. The concept of a semiconductor technology race is
based on the assumption of a never-ending flow of technical advances that can be turned into useful
products that a market will pay to acquire. For Intel, this includes at least innovative physics
and materials that support Moore's law. Such advances require years (if not decades) of research to
realize, as well as financial, technical, and moral support. As the innovation funnel narrows and
specific concepts are selected for reduction to engineering practice, whether in product design or
process development, projects have to be completed on time and on budget in a coordinated fashion
to sustain Intel's technology lead. Production equipment implementing the new physics and using the
new materials can be available in modest quantities for these development projects, but once HVM
begins, this equipment is required very quickly in very large numbers. And given the nature of
Intel's innovative products, the market must be appropriately prepared to accept them.
There is risk in every component of this repetitive sequence and in the coordination of activities.
In the early exploratory steps, the innovations may not materialize or may be realized too slowly.
Critical development projects may be delayed or fail due to technical difficulties. Equipment and
materials may not be available in appropriate quantities or at acceptable prices when HVM needs
them. Of course the most catastrophic risk, at the end of this long series of interacting risks, is
that the market will not accept the resulting product. Successful management of these sequential
interrelated risks is absolutely essential to the success of Intel as a technology company.
On the other hand, there exists a spectrum of risks, many of which are only peripherally related to
the high technology nature of Intel's business. Every company faces risks from natural events such
as storms, earthquakes, floods, and so on, depending on the physical location of the company and
the luck of the draw. Artificial or human-generated events can be just as disruptive as natural
disasters and equally beyond the control of the average company. Accidents happen in the form of
fires, lost shipments and a plethora of other causes, some of which can be mitigated. Operating
internationally brings with it the risk of incompatible regulations and business practices. Every
conscientious company works to avoid causing damage to its physical environment or risk to the
health and safety of its employees, suppliers, or customers.
Successful management of this range of risks is often measured in terms of business continuity. Did
the company continue to function in an effective manner in the face of various combinations of
these risks over time? Perhaps an equally important question, as the commercial landscape continues
to become ever more complex, concerns the ability of the company to learn from its experience of
being exposed to these risks over time. Managing these commercial risks and answering these
questions is in many cases equally important to Intel's prosperity as is managing the technical and
marketing risks described above.
Moreover, cutting across all of these risks is the sobering fact that risks are dynamic. Old risks
subside and new risks rise up to take their place. Risks that were adequately characterized and
mitigated with old techniques morph and require renewed attention. New techniques become feasible
(sometimes based on Intel technology advances), and old risk management systems can be made to
operate more efficiently and effectively. Risks that in the past were independent become coupled
with other risks in complex ways as our market broadens. The message is that there is no end to
risk management. High-performance companies will always need to be vigilant in detecting holes (and
overlaps) in their integrated risk management systems. They will continue to seek a balance between
allocating a modest budget to manage an apparently infinite spectrum of risks and proposing a
seemingly infinite budget for the impossible goal of mitigating all risks. In this ongoing effort,
competitive advantage accrues to the company that can continuously improve its integrated risk
management system.
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