How do we decide to make strategic bets on multiple, sometimes competing technologies across a portfolio of technology options to maximize our potential for success? Ideally, we can minimize risk by investing in technologies that enable multiple competing technology options; however, not all critical capabilities fall into this category. Investment in orthogonal options must be judicious, as high-risk, high-reward, long lead-time developments will likely also be high cost. In some cases, these larger investments may enable the desired option or a competing option. As long as at least one technology option is available when needed, the investment is ultimately successful. Finally, there may be unique capabilities that may be under-funded, where a nominal investment can enable a technical linchpin.

In this paper, we examine a method to make these strategic bets in the lithography supply chain. We start by looking at a system to assess technical and business risk for all components of the supply chain as they evolve over time. We discuss a methodology for identifying fellow travelers, including consortia, to create programs to establish a foundation of common technologies. We discuss the contractual and competitive aspects of creating investment and joint development programs, with the ultimate goal of improving our probability of success in delivering the right technology at the right time in high volume.