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The Next Ten Percent
 
 
 
 
Overview
 
Intel researchers in the People and Practices Research Group are exploring usage and business models that might drive the adoption of computing among a much larger portion of the world’s population, and examining the potential impact of these changes. “Exploring the Next Ten Percent” highlights the results of a multi-year foundational research effort begun in 2001. Intel continues to conduct research in this area, with a primary focus on community adoption of technology.
 
 
Exploring the Next Ten Percent
 
Today about ten percent of the world's population—some 600 million people—have access to connected computing. Evidence suggests, however, that this number may grow dramatically. Mobile telephony promises to reach some two billion subscribers soon. As Moore's Law continues to drive down the cost of computing, new form factors appear that better fit the daily lives of more people, and new forms of wireless connectivity enable communities to "leapfrog" to high bandwidth connectivity, a large new population of computing users may be enabled

Research suggests that the next wave of computing users will look very different than the first. They will be less affluent and more heterogeneous, live in more challenging environments in the developing world, and in many cases have very different daily lives and abiding concerns. Research suggests that the social networks of communities that have not yet adopted technologies may be very different from those that have, yet existing technologies have evolved to best support those who have already adopted technology. How will Intel and other companies reach out to new users, provide them with relevant digital technology and content?

To address the question, Intel’s People and Practice researchers launched a project in 2001, to explore the usage and business models that could drive the adoption of computing by another next ten percent of the world's population.

View The Next 10% Research video [WMV file, 24MB; requires Media Player]
 
 
New Computing Models and Challenges
 
The findings of The Next Ten Percent project suggest that computing will be transformed considerably as it moves to less affluent markets in the developing world. This transformation will involve not just changes to hardware or software but also to usage models (the reasons people will adopt computing) and business models (the ways people will offer and pay for services related to digital technology). Companies that hope to serve this emerging group of computer users must be prepared to face some fundamental differences in why computers are purchased and how they are deployed and used.

Drivers of Technology Adoption
For people with limited financial means, one of the most important drivers of new technology adoption will be economic opportunity. Other potential uses, such as entertainment, will not be as important as the answer to one simple question: "Does the presence of this technology enable me to better feed my family?" To help ensure that the answer is "yes," Intel researchers are exploring new types of employment and new supports form traditional employment that technology could make possible for entrepreneurs and laborers in the developing world.

Business models that could drive the adoption of computing will vary from one region of the world to the next. For example, computers with Internet access could enable people living in remote villages to find profitable markets for local agricultural products as well as the delivery mechanisms to get those products to market. Having access to the Internet might also enable the villagers to learn how to process agricultural products to create new products.

The research identified other important values of "the next ten percent" that could drive technology adoption, including health care, education, and political empowerment. Could technology be used to cost-effectively extend the reach of trained physicians and others with medical expertise into places where medical care is scarce? Could it be used to enhance educational institutions, and to enable life-long learning in places where jobs and skills are scarce? Can technology enable political empowerment for people who, by virtue of their economic situation, often have little say in the decisions that affect their lives? Intel researchers have found that technology is already being applied for these purposes in less affluent communities. For each of these services, people are willing to pay modest amounts of money. In the aggregate, this translates into major potential opportunities for technology companies.

Technology adoption requires not just the technology itself but the supporting infrastructure. In regions where new technology is adopted, local people must be trained to support the technology. There also will be a need for content development that is relevant to emerging regions. Content that is relevant for emerging economies will be quite different than what is appropriate for people living in the developed world. Providing local support resources and locally relevant content to emerging markets will pose a major challenge for Intel and other members of the technology community.

Shared Computing and Mediated Access
In the U.S., individual ownership of computing technology is the predominant model. Each person is expected to have her own PC, laptop or iPod.* In many parts of the world, sharing and community are more powerful values, and sharing of technology is no exception.

In the course of The Next Ten Percent project, researchers have found a variety of shared computing arrangements that enabled users to leverage the knowledge and financial capital of a few entrepreneurs to benefit the community as a whole. Individual ownership was rare. Instead, community-based telecenters, Internet cafes and village kiosks offered shared access to the Internet for a modest fee. This form of access may become even more common in developing communities in the future.

A variation on shared access to computing is "mediated" access, which allows people to harvest the benefits of computing without even knowing how to operate a computer. This model is being popularized in rural India, where people can visit local computing kiosks and access a wide range of services through an Internet-connected computer operated by the kiosk owner. In places where labor is inexpensive and computer expertise scarce, the kiosk model is likely to predominate. Intel researchers are exploring ways to design technologies to support this trend, to connect kiosks and better support the wide range of services that kiosks can offer, from e-government services to health care to a host of private sector services.

The Dominance of Mobile and Wireless Technology
Mobile telephony has become a vital element in the imaginations and lives of well over a billion people worldwide. Simple voice connectivity has been shown (in our own research and that of others) to provide greater economic opportunity and empowerment. As new capabilities migrate to the handset-photography and data storage, for instance-companies must explore how a vast new population will treat the mobile handset as their truly "personal computer."

In addition to mobile technology, wireless forms of computing and communication will be critical to the next ten percent of users. Wi-Fi, meshes, WiMax, UWB, and a host of other new forms of connectivity could radically alter the landscape in the developing world. What will happen when market stall vendors at outdoor public markets in remote corners of the world can accept e-cash payments from smart cards or handheld devices, bringing efficiencies to transactions and increasing the money supply for entrepreneurial investment? What will happen when the world of micro-finance-a proven model in much of the developing world, with an estimated 50 million borrowers-increases by a factor of ten? These and many other developments could have a major impact on living standards, even in the remotest locations of the world.

New Distribution Channels
In many parts of the developing world, technology companies will face competition from a variety of unfamiliar distribution channels. Technology sales and service will often be delivered through the "informal economy." Today, street corner vendors in Morocco and the Philippines replace cell phone screens, keyboards and other parts for customers, using third party replacement parts and training that are not supported by the original manufacturers (in fact, many manufacturers have little awareness of these informal channels). Pirated software, CDs, DVD's and other content can already be found in outdoor markets and informal vendor stalls throughout the world. Companies must be prepared to deal with these realities if they hope to make inroads into emerging markets.

The examples above are only glimpses into a potential future. It may be impossible to predict exactly how computing and communications technology will evolve over the next five to ten years. One thing seems certain, however: someone-some firm, a combination of firms, an entire industry-will emerge to create vast new markets of computing users, generating a second wave of the digital revolution. Developing technologies that will be most easily adapted by these new players will make all the difference.
Case Study: Lessons from Fieldwork in India
 
Perhaps nowhere else in the world is the level of energy equal to that of India for innovating information technology to enable development. Government organizations, non-government organizations, private enterprises, industry, and a number of on-the-ground social entrepreneurs from among India's rural poor have been creating new models for computing. The People and Practices Research team, together with Intel product groups, is actively involved in delivering new models of computing for India.

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) as Income Generators
Companies that want to succeed in India must give up the hope of large margins and focus instead on volume - lower per capita incomes multiplied over a very large population. Companies selling such personal care items as soap or shampoo have learned that sell small, inexpensive sachets of products will enable a much broader base of consumers to access their products.

Similarly, access to technology is almost never "personal" in most of India. Rather, firms need to think about shared, or mediated ownership, whereby access to technology is rented for a short time, rather than owned. In projects such as the N-logue or Drishtee, firms have been creating the sustainable spread of technology by enabling village entrepreneurs to acquire technology and charge modest fees for its use. Villagers benefit in numerous ways from having access to the technology, but do not have to produce the large amounts of capital that would be necessary for personal ownership.

But there is more to the story than just "fee for use". These kiosks are important examples of how firms make smart decisions about local resources, including technology expertise. Kiosk owner / operators do most of the computer operation on behalf of individual "users" accessing their services. Owner / operators thus play a kind of translation role for their fellow villagers, extending the services to a greater number of people. This has been key to the success of such organizations as N-logue and Drishtee. Such kiosks feature multiple applications and services, including email and chat, and offer villagers access to a wide variety of government services including caste certificates, school examination results, driver's licenses, government pensions, and marriage schemes, to name a few.

Some kiosks also provide people with multi-media access to other institutions, such as hospitals. One kiosk used a PC mounted camera to take photos of villagers' eye ailments to submit to a local eye clinic for triage. In another example, villagers sent pictures of infected vegetables to the agricultural extension service and were told a response would come via email the following day. These kiosks provide tremendous value to villagers, saving them considerable amounts of time they would otherwise have to spend away from their fields or employment, which would result in lost wages-an unacceptable alternative for people struggling to survive on a subsistence income.

Perhaps the most famous of the "village kiosk" experiments in India is run by the India Tobacco Company (ITC).* This firm's e-Choupal experiment has successfully reduced the costs of business for ITC and increased revenues for its suppliers-farmers throughout rural India-by helping them connect with one another more efficiently.

ITC provided computers to selected farmers who have the aptitude and responsibility for serving as the point of contact for other farmers in their area. Other farmers come to these points of contact to sell their produce to ITC, and to buy crop insurance, tools, seeds or fertilizer. By eliminating many middlemen, ITC has benefited itself and the farmers-not just the kiosk operators, who command a fee for their services, but all farmers who participate in the system.

Applying Technology to Streamline Economic Development Projects
A second key use of technology in India is to streamline operations of several economic development projects. For instance, an organization called SKS*, based in the state of Andhra Pradesh, has begun using technology to bring efficiency to the processes involved in administering microloans to women in a number of villages in that state.

Originally, when women borrowers would make a weekly payment on their loans, three written records had to be created: one for a receipt to the payer, one as a record in the mobile log, and one for transcribing from the mobile log to the permanent ledger of accounts. Now the transaction is carried out with a Palm Pilot equipped with a smart card reader. The women of the village keep smart cards on which their balance and account history are stored-a mobile passbook of sorts. The Palm Pilot provides an automatic reading of the smart cards and is the means by which the payments are recorded. Back at the regional office, the day's receipts are downloaded to a PC that houses a database of all accounts. In this way, the accuracy and timeliness of the loan programs have improved, and loan officers have developed new technology skills in the process.
 
 
Extending the Benefits of Digital Technology
 
We have uncovered a number of emerging technology trends in the developing world. For Intel and the computing industry at large, the most important trend to consider may be this: As Moore's Law and related advancements continue to reduce the cost of technology products, an increasing number of people will have access to technology. Companies that understand and deliver locally relevant products, services, applications and technologies will help fuel a more widespread adoption of technology, in India and other parts of the developing world.

According to Rama Bijapukar, a market research consultant in India, the attitudes of many of India's rural poor are changing, from settling for what they've got to stretching for more. To quote anthropologist Arjun Appadurai: "Informational resources are needed for people to even imagine a possible life, weave a story or script around themselves and place products in it, in emerging sequences. Imagination is a prelude to action." New computing technologies will play a role in building that newly imagined life.